In the second half of 2016, is the textile industry good or bad?
The special market surrounding the G20 has ended, and the textile market can be described as negative and positive in the second half of the year. Due to the co-squeezing of upstream and downstream and the sluggish export market, the textile industry, which has been in an awkward position in the first half of the year, will usher in a bumper harvest of "golden nine silver ten" in the second half of the year? Or continue the embarrassment of "sandwich cake"?
Export pressure has increased, but there is still support
So far, the total export volume of China's textile industry has shown a negative growth trend. In the first five months of this year, China's total textile and apparel exports fell by 2.3% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed compared with last year and the beginning of this year. The industry expects that the pressure on China's textile exports will increase in the second half of this year, but there is still momentum to support it.
Industry insiders believe that since the beginning of this year, the world economy has been recovering slowly, and the momentum for the recovery of external demand is still insufficient. Therefore, there are many uncertainties in the export prospects of China's textile industry. Since the second quarter of this year, affected by factors such as the devaluation of the renminbi, China's textile exports in the second half of the year are expected to benefit from it.
In addition, it should be noted that in recent years, the overall EU economy has been sluggish, and China's textile and clothing exports to the EU have declined significantly. In the first five months of this year, China's textile and clothing exports to the EU have dropped by nearly 4% year-on-year. In recent years, due to the active economic and trade relations between China and Britain, the proportion of Chinese textiles and clothing exports to the UK has increased. The UK is the largest market for Chinese textiles and clothing in the EU, and it is also a relatively stable market. Although China's textile and apparel exports to the EU declined overall in the first five months of this year, it still maintained a growth of about 3% to the UK. However, after the UK's "Brexit" referendum, factors of market instability have increased, which may affect the export of Chinese textiles and clothing to the UK and the EU.
Dyeing factories in some areas hold group price increases
Due to domestic environmental protection restrictions, the price of dyes has soared and skyrocketed. The government restricts the discharge and must meet the discharge standards. For this reason, the dyeing and finishing industry must again invest heavily in the construction of sewage pretreatment and water reuse for multi-level treatment facilities, resulting in sewage The operating cost of the processing has increased again by a large margin. The wages of workers, water, electricity, and gas have increased every year. The company has been unable to restrain the pressure brought by the continuous increase in production costs and cannot maintain low-profit operations.
At present, many companies have chosen to raise prices. It is understood that there are no less than 15 printing and dyeing enterprises in Jiaxing City. Compared with the dyeing fee price in the first half of this year, conventional products have increased by 1,000-2,000 yuan/ton, which is about 10%-20%, while the prices of a few varieties are still maintained. Original price.
Not only in Jiaxing, but also in the printing and dyeing areas in Suzhou, Shishi and Shaoxing, the printing and dyeing processing fees have been increased to varying degrees since August to maintain production and operation. Many traders shook their heads and cried out that they had risen by 2,000 at once, unable to communicate with customers and could not accept it! Business is difficult!
There are still many uncertain factors in raw materials
Polyester, the trend of the second half of the year is still difficult to judge. The operating rate of the polyester plant that was previously discontinued is believed to be a new high after the G20, and the upstream and downstream supply and demand relationship, Xiaobian believes, is still the decision point of this game.
On the contrary, before the G20, the joint insuring and speculation based on the G20 market will continue to weaken the market.
In terms of PTA, many devices will be shut down and overhauled in the second half of the year. It is believed that there will be some support. However, the trend of crude oil prices is still confused. The Fed's interest rate hike, OPEC meeting progress, and the cost aspect can provide PTA with support. Knowable.
To sum up, the textile industry market in the second half of the year is still unclear. Both positive and negative coexist. What kind of attitude do the friends report on the market in the second half of the year?